Erdogan…the pragmatism of continuity
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been dealing with what he inherited from his previous term in government over the past 22 years. This time, Erdogan inherited an economy in distress.
During the election process, Erdogan boasted that the performance of the Turkish economy was very good, although there were some factors causing tension, the most important of which was the increase in inflation.
Factors causing tension
He explained to voters that the reason for these factors causing tension are the developments taking place outside Turkey, the most important of which is the war in Ukraine.
Erdogan pledged to put the economy back on track, promising a “Turkish century.” It now remains for him to fulfill his promises, as many Turks voted for him not because they were satisfied with his policies, especially his economic policy, but because they believed that he could get them out of the difficulties facing the country.
Perhaps there is some contradiction in this, because the main reason for the difficulties they were suffering from was Erdogan’s economic policies.
Erdogan
Erdogan has shown a relatively more flexible approach since his election victory, until now. The main ministers in his new team are not new faces. It is something of a shift within his long-standing inner circle, putting at the forefront more open-minded and internationally known political technocrats, such as the ministers of finance, foreign affairs, interior and defence.
Now, Erdogan has set a new goal to regain Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, and other major cities that he lost to the opposition in the elections held in 2018. He is determined to achieve this in the upcoming local elections scheduled for March next year. The losses, especially in Istanbul, were a significant political shock to him.
Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party will once again utilize the wealth they have accumulated during their 22 years in power, and they will employ state resources to finance the election campaign against the opposition, which remains astonished by the defeat it experienced in the elections last May.
Erdogan pledged to get the economy back on track, promising a “Turkish century.” It now remains for him to fulfill his promises, as many Turks voted for him not because they were satisfied with his policies, especially his economic policy, but because they believed that he could get them out of the difficulties facing the country.
On the opposition level, the opposition parties that formed the “Nation Alliance” made strategic mistakes before and after the elections. The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, is in turmoil. Party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who retained his seat in parliament despite losing the presidential election again, claims that he has to sail his ship to a safe port as the captain.
Erdogan
Millions of people who voted for the opposition are so alarmed that if there are elections tomorrow, many of them will not go to the polls.
In the nine months that separate us from the next local elections, Erdogan needs to weaken the opposition further and improve the performance of the economy a little. He then calls on people not to give their trust in municipalities to a broken opposition that has nothing but anything to offer him because he holds the reins of power.
Rational economic policies
Erdogan’s current economic team is led by Mehmet Simsek, the new Minister of Finance, who also held the position from 2009 to 2015. Simsek had abandoned politics for other reasons, but it was widely speculated that the reason for his departure was that he disagreed with economic policies. Which Erdogan asked of him.
Erdogan convinced Simsek to return, promising him not to interfere in his work this time.
Simsek’s first statement when he took office was that Turkey must return to rational economic policies. This was a direct reference to Erdogan’s unconventional policies and a clear statement placing blame on those policies.
Turkish Central Bank
The Turkish Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than two years, under the leadership of the new economic team, from 8.5 percent to 15 percent. The upward movement in interest rates was expected, but many economic analysts considered that the increase was insufficient. Since then, the value of the Turkish lira has declined.
At the end of June, inflation reached 39.59 percent. Unofficial estimates indicate that the percentage is 110 percent, which is closer to the truth.
Aside from the economy, many of the 25 million people who voted against Erdogan worry that he will use his final term in office to complete the “New Turkey” system he is contemplating: intervention in lifestyles and a more conservative approach, and this is the main source of concern. .
Erdogan has a new goal that he will try to achieve in the local elections that will be held in March of next year. He is determined to regain Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya and other major cities that he lost to the opposition in the elections that took place in 2018.
Foreign policy is in the process of reconsideration
Erdogan has rallied his masses over the past decade under the slogan of transforming Türkiye into a global power. This gave international relations and foreign policy an advanced position in Erdogan’s politics.
But Erdogan’s foreign policy has been characterized by tension on several fronts since 2013. He had to wait until 2021, before he began rapprochement with countries with which relations were tense, after he felt the pain of political isolation.
Erdogan’s choice of the new Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, indicates his intention to continue this policy, at least for the time being. This is because the outgoing Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, was nothing more than an official spokesman.
Secretary of State
The newly appointed Secretary of State, who previously served as intelligence chief, has extensive experience in sensitive foreign policy matters and is recognized for his ability to effectively present his arguments to the president.
Relations with Western countries remain tense. Within the European Union, NATO, and the United States, there is a widespread perception of President Erdogan as an authoritarian leader with anti-Western sentiments and a strong-willed mentality. Many believe that Turkey, under Erdogan’s leadership, is gradually moving away from its traditional Western alliances, and they do not consider him a reliable partner. This feeling is mutual; Erdogan also believes that the West has always worked against him. From his point of view, the United States was behind the 2016 coup attempt, the European Union does not recognize Turkey as a member, and NATO allies support the People’s Protection Units/PKK in Syria.
It should be noted that many Turks, including those who do not support Erdogan, believe that the West is pushing Turkey away, instead of it moving away on its own. Despite the mutual mistrust and hatred between the two sides, neither side wants to lose the other completely.
The West
The West does not want to completely alienate Erdogan, but rather wants to keep him close to him. On the other hand, Turkey is trying to provoke the West a little, without going so far as to sever ties with it.
Two meetings were held between Turkey and the United States after the elections that took place last May. Foreign Ministers Fidan and Blinken met in London on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference, and their deputies met in Washington a few days after that meeting within the framework of the Turkish-American strategic mechanism.
Millions of people who voted for the opposition are so alarmed that if there are elections tomorrow, many of them will not go to the polls
Among a number of serious problems between the two NATO allies, there is a major issue, where two obstacles now stand in the way: Sweden’s membership in NATO, and Turkey’s long-awaited purchase of F-16 aircraft.
Whether or not the alliance is able to resolve the issue of Sweden’s membership before the NATO summit in Vilnius in mid-July, the outcome will indicate in which direction relations between Turkey and the West are headed.
US and NATO
US and NATO allies realize that the decision is entirely up to Erdogan, and if he so desires, Turkey’s objections will be immediately lifted.
Turkey’s EU accession talks have been frozen since 2018 due to concerns about the rule of law and democracy in Turkey, as well as obstacles facing Cyprus, Greece and France.
Unless there is a radical shift on either side, the situation is unlikely to change. Rather, Cyprus, which is already a major obstacle in relations between Turkey and the European Union, will likely turn into a bigger problem, as Turkey, frustrated by the Greek Cypriot position, remains determined to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to form the basis for any future negotiations.
Relations with Western countries remain tense. Within the European Union, NATO, and the United States, there is a widespread perception of President Erdogan as an authoritarian leader with anti-Western sentiments and a strong-willed mentality.
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Egypt and Turkey… the continuation of the rapprochement between the two countries
Then Türkiye’s growing rapprochement with Russia aroused the West’s ire and anger.
Turkish-Russian relations
The personal relationship between Erdogan and Putin governs Turkish-Russian relations, and despite their differing personalities, the two leaders effectively handle the affairs of their respective countries. They are both pariahs from some countries, each in their own way, and have a very similar style of managing state affairs as well as economics and business.
Just as Putin supported Erdogan during the election process in Turkey, Erdogan immediately called Putin and offered his support when he faced the Wagner rebellion.
Erdogan’s gesture was well received and will certainly foster stronger relations between the two leaders. This may facilitate solutions in places like Syria, but it will increase pressure on Erdogan’s already uncomfortable relations with the West. This is unless the West acts in a pragmatic manner and tries to benefit from the relations between Erdogan and Putin.
Turkish foreign policy under Erdogan
Turkish foreign policy under Erdogan has become more diversified. The Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as Africa, occupied the forefront, each due to their situation and features. As for Asia, which has become the focus of global politics, it has become somewhat less visible on Turkey’s radar.
Former Foreign Minister Cavusoglu presented the “Asia Again Initiative”, but it was a container without content. During the coming period, Turkey may decide to activate this initiative and involve itself more with China, Japan, and other Asian countries. Erdogan remains emotionally, religiously, historically, and ideologically linked to the Middle East.
After the “Arab Spring,” Erdogan’s Turkey sided with political Islamists, leading to the collapse of relations with a number of Arab countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Turkey became a haven for fleeing Muslim Brotherhood activists who continued their activities, including broadcasting and propaganda, from there.
But as the Muslim Brotherhood failed in its efforts to achieve inter-Arab reconciliation, Erdogan also joined the bandwagon, rearranging his relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, including reducing – and in some cases ending – their activities in the country.
Reconciliation with Arab
These steps enabled reconciliation with Arab countries with which relations were problematic. Erdogan will now want to take advantage of improved relations.
The Turkish President has his eye on Gulf capital and investment, and economic endeavors and opportunities are likely to form the backbone of future relations between Turkey and the Gulf states that are searching for new investment and trade opportunities with the aim of economic diversification.
On the other hand, the Turkish President has his eye on Gulf capital and investment, and economic endeavors and opportunities are likely to form the backbone of future relations between Turkey and the Gulf states that are searching for new investment and trade opportunities with the aim of economic diversification.
UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed recently visited Turkey, where he watched the Champions League final in Istanbul alongside Erdogan. A few days later, Mohammed bin Zayed received in Abu Dhabi the Vice President of Turkey, Cevdet Yilmaz, and the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Simsek, and it is no secret that the conversation between the two parties focused on opportunities for economic cooperation.
Erdogan and Egyptian President
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the two countries would elevate their diplomatic relations to the level of ambassadors, indicating that a summit between Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is expected to take place in the near future.
The tense relations between Turkey and some Arab countries, including Egypt, have declined somewhat, especially regarding the Libya issue, as Turkey shows greater interest in their concerns.
Rapprochement with Syria
Despite the efforts made towards rapprochement with Syria, many challenges remain, making the road ahead very bumpy. The participation of multiple actors with different agendas, priorities, and interconnected problems, in addition to the steadfastness of President al-Assad, all contributed to the complexity of the situation.
One of Erdogan’s notable strengths is his pragmatism, which his supporters regard as a political genius, while his opponents criticize as the opportunism of a man willing to prioritize personal gain. Erdogan has demonstrated the ability to make strategic shifts and justify them convincingly to his voters, often avoiding accountability for the consequences.
On the other hand, the absence of a strong and capable opposition enhances the possibility that Erdogan will continue to rule in his own way, as he remains unchecked and unchallenged.
I’m Hassan Saeed, a Clinical Psychology graduate deeply engaged in the realms of WordPress, blogging, and technology. I enjoy merging my psychological background with the digital landscape. Let’s connect and explore these exciting intersections!
