The newly appointed Turkish ambassador to Cairo, Salih Mutlu Sen, quoted Erdogan as saying that Egypt and Turkey will increase bilateral trade and revive their strategic cooperation council, expressing his optimism in the ability of the two countries to achieve positive results on many regional issues.

The political rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak’s regime in 2011, was just a small detail in the larger picture of the political empowerment of Islamists across the region on the sidelines of what was known in the media as the “Arab Spring,” a series of revolutions that… It swept the region from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria.

Turkey had high hopes for Islamist control over countries in the region, including Egypt, says Islamic affairs expert Mounir Adeeb.

Adeeb added to Al-Majalla: “Turkey does not believe that it belongs to Europe, where it is geographically located. Rather, it finds in the Islamic movements across the Arab region a truer expression of its cultural identity,” adding that Ankara “believed that its support for the Islamists who hold the reins of power in the region “It will serve its own interests.”

It seems that the army’s overthrow of Morsi entailed two bad consequences for Erdogan, which he could not accept at all. The first is the beginning of the collapse of the regional plans that Erdogan developed for his country in the post-Arab Spring period, which were primarily based on Islamists taking over regional countries. The second is that the overthrow produced a new episode of military dominance in an important Arab country, a development that usually has far-reaching effects in the region, and perhaps in Turkey itself.

It was not long before his fears began to materialize regarding the first evil, when the Islamic regimes that ruled regional countries for a period began to falter one after another after the fall of the Brotherhood in Egypt. His fears regarding the second evil became clear when a group of Turkish army officers attempted to stage a coup against his government, in July 2016.

The Turkish leader’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood has always been at the center of harsh criticism in Cairo. In addition to speaking on behalf of the group, he provided refuge for its leaders and allowed the Brotherhood’s television channels to broadcast from Turkey. The situation is that most of the Brotherhood leaders who took refuge in Turkey are wanted by the Egyptian authorities for their involvement in crimes related to terrorism and incitement, two matters for which Egypt paid dearly in the past decade.

Encirclement of Egypt

Not only did Erdogan’s Turkey throw its full weight behind the Muslim Brotherhood, but it also tried to besiege Egypt by gaining a foothold in its immediate neighborhood, specifically in Libya.

In November 2019, Turkey signed an agreement to demarcate the maritime borders with the Government of National Accord in western Libya. It also signed another agreement with the same government regarding the presence of Turkish forces and military bases in western Libya. Egypt and other regional countries, including Greece and Cyprus, have denounced the two agreements.

The presence of Turkish forces in Libya was worrying to Cairo, which saw this presence as a threat to national security, in light of the tense relations with Ankara and reports about its sponsorship of the transfer of jihadists to Libya from other countries, including Syria.

According to Muhammad Rabie Al-Dehi, a specialist in Turkish affairs, Egyptian concern about these developments is partly due to Egypt’s initial position towards the government of western Libya. Al-Dahi explained to Al-Majalla that “there are common interests between Turkey and the government of western Libya.”

 

The vast hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern Mediterranean appear to be the deep reason behind Turkish moves in the region, including towards countries in the region such as Egypt. Some of these reserves have already been discovered off the coasts of Egypt, Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon. 

 

 

In addition to fears of growing smuggling operations across the common border with Libya, the Turkish military presence in the neighboring country has led Egypt to tighten security measures along the border, through various means, including establishing a huge military base near the border.

Al-Sisi set a red line in the desert around the Libyan city of Sirte and warned that attacks on the city by forces loyal to the government of western Libya would be considered an attack on Egypt, which would precipitate the intervention of the Egyptian army.

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Hydrocarbon wealth Egypt and Turkey

The vast hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern Mediterranean appear to be the deep reason behind Turkish moves in the region, including towards countries in the region such as Egypt. Some of these reserves have already been discovered off the coasts of Egypt, Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon. Turkey is striving to find some reserves off its coast and also become a major energy channel to Europe.

But the series of maritime border demarcation agreements that Egypt concluded with the countries of the region caused Turkish dreams in this regard to evaporate.

For this reason, Turkey hopes to be able to conclude a similar deal with Egypt, as it has spoken on many occasions about the benefits that would accrue to the Arab country from such a desired deal.

In addition, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which was founded by Egypt, an OPEC-like organization that includes regional gas producers and consumers, also excludes Turkey, which dashes its hopes of playing a more effective role in the regional energy field.

Egypt and Turkey

Long-term effects

The nascent reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey comes in a regional context of major settlements and amid changing regional circumstances. But the pace of repairing relations between Cairo and Ankara is very slow.

Perhaps the meeting of the leaders of the two countries in New Delhi could accelerate this process, especially in light of their clear enthusiasm for improving relations between their countries in this changing regional and international context.

What is worth mentioning, despite everything, is that investment and trade relations between the two countries have continued, despite all the difficulties, to grow significantly in the past decade since relations between them became tense.

Economists in Cairo believe that Egypt and Turkey will benefit greatly economically from improved relations between them.

Alia al-Mahdi, former dean of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, told Al-Majalla, “The two countries should exploit the improvement of political relations to increase trade and investment relations, given Turkey’s economic weight.”

She added: “Egypt is in dire need of investments, not only from Turkey, but from all other countries as well.”

A potential political solution between the two countries could have far-reaching implications, not only in the areas where they are currently clashing, such as Libya, but also in addressing regional issues such as those in Syria and tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

Egypt and Turkey

 

Investment and trade relations between the two countries have continued, against all odds, to grow significantly in the past decade since relations between them became tense. Economists in Cairo believe that Egypt and Turkey will benefit greatly economically from improved relations between them.

 

 

Egypt, which aspires to become a regional energy hub, has the potential to complement Turkey’s desired role in the regional and international energy scene, especially given Egypt’s extensive gas liquefaction facilities near the Mediterranean Sea.

However, it is crucial for both countries to address the underlying causes of tensions between them to ensure a lasting reconciliation, analysts noted. These basic tensions include Turkish support for Islamist groups and Turkish interference in the affairs of Arab countries. While progress has been made in resolving some of these issues, there is still work to be done to address others.

A potential political solution between the two countries could have far-reaching implications, not only in the areas where they are currently clashing, such as Libya, but also in addressing regional issues such as those in Syria and tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

Egypt, which aspires to become a regional energy center, has the ability to complete Turkey’s desired role in the regional and international energy scene, especially if we consider Egypt’s extensive gas liquefaction facilities near the Mediterranean Sea.

However, it is crucial for both countries to address the underlying causes of tensions between them to ensure a lasting reconciliation, analysts noted. These basic tensions include Turkish support for Islamist groups and Ankara’s interference in the affairs of Arab countries.

As Al-Dahi says: “These causes of tension must be addressed first. Including Turkish support for Islamist groups and interference in the affairs of Arab countries. While progress has been made in resolving some of these issues, there is still work to be done to address other issues.”