Gaza battle: Messages and strikes to draw “red lines”
Gaza battle: Since the stunning Hamas attack and its members crossing the Gaza Strip on October 7, there has been an intensive process of exchanging messages through diplomatic and intelligence channels on the one hand, and military strikes and raids on the other, to determine the “red lines” of the Israeli attack on Gaza and its ultimate goals.
Tel Aviv sent messages that the ultimate goal of the air, land and sea military operation would be to eliminate Hamas in Gaza, remove it from the scene, and make a strategic shift there.
Israel
Tel Aviv sent messages that the ultimate goal of the air, land and sea military operation would be to eliminate Hamas in Gaza, remove it from the scene, and make a strategic shift there. Gaza battle:
It is in a state of response, and is ready to fight battles on different fronts, specifically in Syria and Lebanon. Therefore, I requested support to form a military-political coalition, similar to the one formed against ISIS, to support the Gaza war, deter Iran’s allies, and prevent the opening of new fronts.
AFP
Gaza battle:
Accordingly, it launched preemptive strikes on Damascus and Aleppo airports and entered into rounds of escalation with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, some of which were in the Shebaa Farms within the rules of engagement between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu included the head of the Unity Party, Benny Gantsch, to form a “war government.” He also received the support of the opposition leader, Meir Lapid, to “root out Hamas,” but he stipulated that the extremists be removed to enter his government.
Iran’s messages, which were conveyed to Washington, London, and Paris, included that Tehran and its allies were ready to open the fronts of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq to prevent a strategic shift.
Iran
Tehran sent, through mediators and Western countries, a set of “red lines,” including that it would not allow Hamas to be removed from the scene and a strategic shift be undertaken.
According to the analysis of one of the mediators, Iran believes that eliminating the “Hamas” structure means, first, its loss of a Sunni component in the “axis of resistance” based on Shiite fronts, factions, and organizations.
It also means, secondly, its loss of a strategic card in the Middle East through the “Palestinian card” in the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Reuters
Iran’s messages, which were conveyed to Washington, London, and Paris, included that Tehran and its allies are ready to open the fronts of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq to prevent this strategic shift from occurring.
The Iranian “red lines” also included the rejection of a large-scale ground incursion and the assassination of prominent Hamas leaders in or outside Gaza, which would contribute to weakening the movement, with less emphasis on the third element compared to an emphasis on the first.
There is “hate” from officials in Damascus towards “Hamas” because of its position in the last decade, in exchange for the good relationship with the President of the Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the “Fatah” movement.
Syria
Messages reached President Bashar al-Assad and Moscow, including the necessity of not entering into this major battle, the Syrian army’s commitment to military neutrality across the Golan, and controlling the movements of Iranian organizations.
Indeed, some official instructions appeared in Damascus within this trend.
There was also talk about efforts being made to reach a balance in Damascus, between three elements:
The first:
Iran’s political and military pressure to mobilize its militias in southern Syria to launch bombing attacks to open a front or threaten to open it, and Damascus’s desire to keep pace with the position regarding the Palestinian issue.
AFP
Second:
Arab demands and maintaining the path of normalization and rapprochement with Arab capitals.
Third:
The “hate” of officials in Damascus against “Hamas” because of its position in the last decade in exchange for the good relationship with the President of the Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the “Fatah” movement.
Al-Assad had received two phone calls from the President of the Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and the Iranian President, Ibrahim Raisi, discussing the situation in Gaza.
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Western capitals received a warning that an Israeli ground military operation in Gaza, which includes 2.3 million people, would lead to a catastrophic exodus towards Egypt, with concerns about demographic changes and terrorist threats.
Arabic messages
Western capitals received an Arab warning that an Israeli ground military operation in Gaza, which contains 2.3 million people, will lead to a catastrophic exodus towards Egypt, with concerns about demographic changes and terrorist threats.
It also included warnings that extremist factions would fill any vacuum due to the absence of Hamas and the dismantling of its structure, especially in light of the presence of ISIS remnants there and in the geographical vicinity.
AFP
With the realization that the priority now is the urgent humanitarian and military dimensions, there is a circulation of ideas about the necessity of thinking about the “next day”
And proposing a complete deal, which includes – in addition to the necessity of thinking about setting the rules of the coming battle and looking into small deals – that includes the exchange of prisoners and captives, humanitarian corridors. and some related ideas.
By supporting the Palestinian National Authority and searching for possibilities to move forward a political process and settlement. There is a proposal to hold a mini-Arab summit for this purpose.
There are messages to Tehran that there is no desire from the administration of President Joe Biden to direct all the blame to Iran and not to expand direct confrontation with it.
American and Western messages
Western countries support Israel’s rhetoric against Hamas and provide it with military, intelligence and political support, with the hope of “neutralizing civilians” and opening corridors for them.
But there are messages to Tehran that there is no desire from the administration of President Joe Biden to direct all the blame to Iran and not to expand the direct confrontation with it, with the hope that these messages will lead to limiting the battle to Gaza and against Hamas, within agreed-upon rules of engagement.
The movement’s message is that “the time has come to open the fronts and support Gaza to make a counter-strategic change, and that the movement, at the same time, is ready for this battle… and the talk will be on the field.”
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Hamas messages
Movement officials defend the attack launched by the Al-Qassam Brigades on October 7 and consider it a response to repeated Israeli violations, the practices of the far-right government, the transformation of “extremist myths” into a government political agenda, restrictions on prisoners and Al-Aqsa, and continued assassinations.
And confession in private sessions of “individual violations” that occurred against women and children after the attack.
Talk will be on the Field
As several sessions took place between officials from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah in Beirut in recent days to coordinate positions, the movement’s message is that “the time has come to open the fronts and support Gaza to make a counter-strategic change, and that the movement, at the time He himself is ready for this battle… and the talk will be on the field.”
The exchange of messages will continue, whether through diplomatic, intelligence, or rhetorical means, or through military strikes and raids in the various arenas of confrontation.
Some of them actually involve conveying a message, while others fall solely within the framework of saving face.
But the borders of the Gaza battle are still not drawn. Will they remain within their borders or will they cross the “red lines” and borders?
I’m Hassan Saeed, a Clinical Psychology graduate deeply engaged in the realms of WordPress, blogging, and technology. I enjoy merging my psychological background with the digital landscape. Let’s connect and explore these exciting intersections!
